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Monday, October 31, 2022

No, your account isn’t banned: Instagram confirms ongoing outage - 9to5Mac

If you’re unable to access your Instagram account today, just know you’re not alone. Instagram has confirmed that there is an ongoing issue that is blocking some people from accessing their Instagram accounts. This means your account isn’t banned, despite the errors you might be seeing…

Instagram down: Is your account suspended?

An influx of Instagram users have taken to Twitter on Monday morning to share that they are unable to access their accounts. In some cases, this has led to Instagram users thinking their accounts were banned or deactivated. Thankfully, that is not the case.

In an update from its Instagram Communications account on Twitter, the company explains: “We’re aware that some of you are having issues accessing your Instagram account. We’re looking into it and apologize for the inconvenience.”

This is a pretty odd outage. The Instagram app is loading for most users, but they are unable to access their specific profile pages. Some users are even seeing errors implying that their accounts have been banned or suspended. Many affected users are also seeing dramatic drops in follower counts as well.

Are you having problems with Instagram this morning? What sort of errors are you seeing? Let us know down in the comments.

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No, your account isn’t banned: Instagram confirms ongoing outage - 9to5Mac
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Sunday, October 30, 2022

Goldman Sachs Now Sees Fed Rates Peaking at 5% in March - Bloomberg

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Goldman Sachs Now Sees Fed Rates Peaking at 5% in March  BloombergView Full Coverage on Google News
Goldman Sachs Now Sees Fed Rates Peaking at 5% in March - Bloomberg
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Strong Dollar Seen Hurting US Outlook and Even Tilting Fed Path - Yahoo Finance

(Bloomberg) -- A strong dollar is likely to weigh negatively on the US economic outlook and could alter how high the Federal Reserve ultimately raises interest rates, economists surveyed by Bloomberg said.

Most Read from Bloomberg

Nearly half of the economists said that international fallout from a strong dollar was either somewhat likely or very likely to spill back to the US over the next 18 months and affect monetary policy. Just 28% saw the currency strength as unlikely to have any impact.

The dollar has risen about 13% this year against other major currencies amid geopolitical tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and as the Fed aggressively raises interest rates to fight an inflation rate that’s at a 40-year high. The survey of 40 economists was conducted Oct. 21-26.

Officials are expected to continue their campaign with another 75 basis-point increase on Wednesday. Their last forecast showed rates reaching 4.4% by year end from a current target range of 3% to 3.25%, and nudging to 4.6% in 2023.

Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are trying to cool the economy and ease price pressures by deliberately tightening US financial conditions, of which the value of the dollar is an important component. A stronger dollar tends to dampen inflation by reducing the costs of imports and lowering domestic production as it raises export prices.

“The Fed and its counterparts around the world are in the uncomfortable position of hammering demand to meet a supply-constrained global economy,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG LLP., in a survey response. “They understand there are spillover effects but have no way of overtly addressing those risks given their own domestic mandates.”

What Bloomberg Economists Says...

“Usually the trade deficit would balloon when the dollar appreciated as much as we had seen since last year. But that effect has been curiously absent so far, even as we are already about five quarters into the appreciation process. One possible explanation is that US is increasing its exports in energy products. The fact that this tightening channel of dollar is absent means that the dollar appreciation is less contractionary to the economy than historically.”

-- Anna Wong (chief US economist)

Economists in the survey were divided on how serious financial stresses and strains will become, with a majority seeing an impact on the central bank’s moves. In the survey, 44% said they believed the Fed could fully complete its aggressive rate tightening despite possible stresses. But 38% said the policy makers would be forced to cut rates earlier than expected and 18% said the Fed would not be able to raise rates as much as planned.

“The Fed may be able to hike as planned but will be forced to slow its pace to avoid financial instability,” said Julia Coronado, the founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC.

Survey respondents expect rates to peak at 5% early next year and a majority of the economists now expect a US and global recession.

A number of prominent economists, including Nouriel Roubini, have warned that troubles in financial markets could cause the Fed as well as other central banks to backtrack from fighting inflation. “You have a major financial institution that may crack globally, not in the US maybe now, but certainly internationally,” Roubini said.

Financial stresses were most recently evident in the UK where the Bank of England had to step in to support markets, and Liz Truss resigned as prime minister after only 44 days in office amid a backlash over her low-tax economic plan which shook investor confidence.

Two thirds of economists said the British market turmoil resulted very largely or exclusively from UK policies as opposed to Fed tightening and the stronger dollar.

The Fed is sometimes referred to as the central bank to the world, reflecting the importance of the US in the global economy. Three-quarters of economists say that’s a proper description, though 33% also say the Fed doesn’t fully appreciate its role. In contrast, 22% said the Fed has responsibility only to the US economy and its domestic mandate of maximum employment and price stability.

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Strong Dollar Seen Hurting US Outlook and Even Tilting Fed Path - Yahoo Finance
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Friday, October 28, 2022

Chrysler and Jeep parent Stellantis offering buyouts to some U.S. salaried employees - CNBC

In this article

The sign is seen outside of the FCA US LLC Headquarters and Technology Center as it is changed to Stellantis on January 19, 2021 in Auburn Hills, Michigan. - Newly-created European carmaker Stellantis motored its way January 18, 2021 onto the Paris and Milan stock exchanges. Stellantis -- created by the merger of France's PSA and US-Italian rival Fiat Chrysler -- is the world's fourth-biggest automaker by volume. (Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY / AFP) (Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images)
JEFF KOWALSKY | AFP | Getty Images

DETROIT – Jeep and Chrysler parent company Stellantis is offering buyouts to some of its 13,000 U.S. salaried employees, as the automaker attempts to cut jobs and realign its workforce for electric vehicles and software services.

To be eligible, employees must be at least 55 years old and have been with the company for 10 years or have 30 years of service and have a pension. Employees were notified of the buyout offers Friday. They have until Dec. 5 to make a decision.

A Stellantis spokeswoman declined to say how many domestic salaried employees are eligible for the program, or whether the automaker has a target for how many workers it would like to take the packages.

"As part of our transformation to become a sustainable tech mobility company and the market leader in low-emission vehicles, in October we offered certain salaried U.S. employees the option to voluntarily separate from the company with a favorable package of benefits that otherwise would not be available to them," she said in an emailed statement.

The automaker, which was formed by the merger of Fiat Chrysler and France-based Groupe PSA in January 2021, offered similar buyouts a year ago to pension-eligible employees. It cited similar reasons for those buyout offers.

Stellantis is at least the second Detroit automaker this year seeking to cut employee headcounts, as the companies spend billions of dollars in electric vehicles and emerging software services.

Ford Motor said in August it was cutting a total of 3,000 salaried and contract jobs, mostly in North America, as the automaker attempts to lower costs as part of restructuring efforts under CEO Jim Farley.

The country's largest automaker, General Motors, has made such cuts in past years but not in 2022. GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson on Tuesday said the company has "no plans for any major workforce reductions."

"We announced really kind of early in the year that we were slowing down hiring and only replacing key departures or critical needs," Jacobson told reporters when discussing GM's third-quarter earnings. "That was an effort to try to make sure that we're slowing down the rate of headcount growth and making sure that we're proactively positioning ourselves."

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Chrysler and Jeep parent Stellantis offering buyouts to some U.S. salaried employees - CNBC
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Thursday, October 27, 2022

Live news updates: Foxtons upgrades full-year outlook on surging London rents - Financial Times

Sporadic lockdowns in China caused Volvo Cars to downgrade its deliveries targets for the year, while rising costs and the need to buy semiconductors on the open market dented profits during the third quarter.

The Swedish carmaker, backed by China’s Geely, initially expected wholesale deliveries to remain flat this year compared with 2021.

But on Thursday the company said it now expects “slightly lower wholesale volumes than 2021, assuming no further major supply chain disturbances”.

Chinese closures were the “biggest issue by far” for the business, chief executive Jim Rowan said, with some suppliers closed for 70 days.

The “sporadic” nature of the closures, which hit Volvo’s suppliers and impacted its plants globally, make it “so difficult for us to predict the end of that”, he said.

The company has been trying to relocate supplies to Europe and the US to cut its reliance on Chinese parts. The group is building a factory in Slovakia to increase European production, and is taking key parts of the electric drive system in-house.

It is also expecting to announce deals in the coming months to increase its supply of lithium and other battery materials, Rowan added.

In the third quarter, car sales fell 8 per cent to 138,000 vehicles, but revenues climbed a third to SKr79.3bn (£6.3bn) as its previously announced price increase fed through.

Net income fell 70 per cent to SKr700mn. Volvo’s profit margin dropped from 7.1 per cent to 4.4 per cent, or from 5.5 per cent to 2.6 per cent once its stake in lossmaking Polestar was included.

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Live news updates: Foxtons upgrades full-year outlook on surging London rents - Financial Times
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Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Meta Platforms, ServiceNow, Align Technology and more - CNBC

A logo of Meta Platforms Inc. is seen at its booth, at the Viva Technology conference dedicated to innovation and startups, at Porte de Versailles exhibition center in Paris, France June 17, 2022.
Benoit Tessier | Reuters

Check out the companies making headlines after the bell

Meta Platforms — The Facebook parent plunged more than 13% after missing earnings estimates for the third quarter. Meta beat revenue estimates, posting a better-than-expected decline year-over-year but shared disappointing guidance for the fourth quarter.

Ford Motor — Ford Motor shares dipped 1.1% in postmarket trading despite surpassing estimates on the top and bottom lines. The automaker took a $2.7 billion noncash writedown on its Argo AI venture, which resulted in an $827 million net loss.

ServiceNow — The software stock soared 12.4% postmarket as earnings per share came in 12 cents ahead of Wall Street expectations. Other cloud stocks also rose in extended trading, including Arista Networks, which added more than 7%.

KLA Corp. — The maker of chip equipment added more than 1% in after-hours trading. KLA topped Wall Street's estimates and raised its forward guidance. Other chip stocks also gained after hours, including Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Applied Materials.

Align Technology — The maker of Invisalign dental straighteners toppled 16.8% after missing earnings estimates for the recent quarter. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.36, while analysts anticipated $2.18 a share.

Sleep Number — The retail stock cratered more than 20% in extended trading after issuing weak guidance as it copes with slowing demand and chip supply issues. Sleep Number topped Wall Street's expectations on the top and bottom lines in the quarter just ended.

Teladoc Health — The telehealth stock jumped more than 8% in extended trading on strong quarterly results and an upbeat outlook for the fourth quarter.

O'Reilly Automotive — Shares gained more than 3% after hours following a beat on revenue and earnings for the third quarter. O'Reilly Automotive also lifted its guidance for the full year.

United Rentals —Shares dipped 1.6% postmarket after revenue in the recent quarter fell short of Wall Street estimates. United Rentals' board also authorized a $1.25 billion share repurchase program.

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Ford, VW-backed Argo AI is shutting down - TechCrunch

Argo AI, an autonomous vehicle startup that burst on the scene in 2017 stacked with a $1 billion investment, is shutting down — its parts being absorbed into its two main backers: Ford and VW, according to people familiar with the matter.

During an all-hands meeting Wednesday, Argo AI employees were told that some people would receive offers from the two automakers, according to multiple sources who asked to not be named. It was unclear how many would be hired into Ford or VW and which companies will get Argo’s technology.

Employees were told they would receive a severance package that includes insurance and two separate bonuses — an annual award plus a transaction bonus upon the deal close with Ford and VW. All Argo employees will receive these. For those who are not retained by Ford or VW, they will additionally receive termination and severance pay, including health insurance. Several people told TechCrunch that it was a generous package and that the founders of the company spoke directly to its more than 2,000 employees.

“In coordination with our shareholders, the decision has been made that Argo AI will not continue on its mission as a company. Many of the employees will receive an opportunity to continue work on automated driving technology with either Ford or Volkswagen, while employment for others will unfortunately come to an end,” Argo said in a statement.

Ford said in its third-quarter earnings report released Wednesday that it made a strategic decision to shift its resources to developing advanced driver assistance systems, and not autonomous vehicle technology that can be applied to robotaxis. The company said it recorded a $2.7 billion non-cash, pretax impairment on its investment in Argo AI, resulting in an $827 million net loss for the third quarter.

That decision appears to have been fueled by Argo’s inability to attract new investors. Ford CEO Jim Farley acknowledged that the company anticipated being able to bring autonomous vehicle technology broadly to market by 2021.

“But things have changed, and there’s a huge opportunity right now for Ford to give time — the most valuable commodity in modern life — back to millions of customers while they’re in their vehicles,” said Farley. “It’s mission-critical for Ford to develop great and differentiated L2+ and L3 applications that at the same time make transportation even safer.”

Farley also insinuated that Ford would be able to buy AV tech down the line, instead of developing it in house. “We’re optimistic about a future for L4 ADAS, but profitable, fully autonomous vehicles at scale are a long way off and we won’t necessarily have to create that technology ourselves,” he added.

Ford also stated that the “development and customer enthusiasm for benefits of L2+ and L3 ADAS warrant dialing up the company’s near-term aspirations and commitment in those areas.”

VW, Argo’s other primary backer, has also indicated plans to shift resources and will no longer invest in Argo AI. The company said it will use its software unit Cariad to drive forward development of highly automated and autonomous driving together with Bosch and, in the future, in China with Horizon Robotics.

While a lesser player, Lyft had also taken a 2.5% stake into Argo. Lyft announced earlier this year plans to launch at least 1,000 self-driving vehicles on its ride-hailing network in a number of cities over the next five years, starting with Miami and Austin.

The ride-hailing company said in a statement that Argo has been a great partner and that this development does not impact Lyft’s autonomous strategy.

“We will continue working with our other partners to advance the safety and commercialization of AV technology,” a Lyft spokesperson said in an emailed statement. “Lyft is the current leader in paid AV rides in North America with over 100,000 rides completed. We’re well positioned to win the AV transition through the combination of our hybrid network, marketplace engine and fleet management capabilities.”

Lyft also has partnerships with AV companies Motional and Waymo.

Argo was founded in 2016 by Bryan Salesky and Pete Rander. The company came out of stealth in February 2017 when Ford announced it would invest $1 billion over five years into Argo. Since then, the company has raised more than $2.6 billion, primarily from Ford and VW, in a pursuit to develop, test and eventually commercialize its automated driving system.

The initial Ford investment came at a particularly hype-y time for the nascent autonomous vehicle industry. Startups, many founded by early pioneers of Google’s self-driving project, were landing eye-popping venture capital deals. A string of acquisitions followed: GM bought Cruise for $1 billion in 2016; Delphi, which is now Aptiv, acquired nuTonomy for $450 million; and Amazon bought Zoox.

The promises around commercializing AV technology have proven more difficult than expected. A wave of consolidation washed over the industry with companies folding, being absorbed into other companies, including Apple. Others, turned to the public market either through a traditional IPO like TuSimple, or by merging with a special purpose acquisition company as Aurora did in hopes of gaining the capital it needs to continue its mission.

Argo seemed to be gaining ground in the past year. The company’s self-driving Ford Fusion vehicles, and now Ford Escape Hybrids, were frequently seen testing on public roads in Austin, Detroit, Miami, Palo Alto and Pittsburgh, where it is headquartered. In the EU, Argo was using the all-electric Volkswagen ID. Buzz for its testing programs in Hamburg and Munich. Argo also has several pilot programs underway in Austin, Miami and Pittsburgh with Lyft, Walmart and 412 Food Rescue.

Just last month the company revealed an ecosystem of products and services designed to support commercial delivery and robotaxi operations. The products — a list that includes fleet management software, data analytics, high-definition mapping and cloud-based communication tools — stretches far beyond the self-driving system that allows a vehicle to navigate city streets without a human driver behind the wheel. Argo appeared to be telling the world it was open for business.

“We are incredibly grateful for the dedication of the Argo AI team, and so proud of our achievements together,” Salesky and Rander said in a statement. “The team consistently delivered above and beyond, and we expect to see success for everyone in whatever comes next, including the opportunities presented by Ford and VW to continue their work on automated driving technology.”

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Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Exclusive: Twitter is losing its most active users, internal documents show - Reuters

Oct 25 (Reuters) - "Is Twitter dying?" billionaire Elon Musk mused in April, five days before offering to buy the social media platform.

The reality, according to internal Twitter (TWTR.N) research seen by Reuters, goes far beyond the handful of examples of celebrities ghosting their own accounts. Twitter is struggling to keep its most active users - who are vital to the business - engaged, underscoring a challenge faced by the Tesla (TSLA.O) chief executive as he approaches a deadline to close his $44 billion deal to buy the company.

These "heavy tweeters" account for less than 10% of monthly overall users but generate 90% of all tweets and half of global revenue. Heavy tweeters have been in "absolute decline" since the pandemic began, a Twitter researcher wrote in an internal document titled “Where did the Tweeters Go?”

A "heavy tweeter" is defined as someone who logs in to Twitter six or seven days a week and tweets about three to four times a week, the document said.

The research also found a shift in interests over the past two years among Twitter's most active English-speaking users that could make the platform less attractive to advertisers.

Cryptocurrency and "not safe for work" (NSFW) content, which includes nudity and pornography, are the highest-growing topics of interest among English-speaking heavy users, the report found.

At the same time, interest in news, sports and entertainment is waning among those users. Tweets on those topics, which have helped Twitter burnish an image as the world’s "digital town square," as Musk once called it, are also the most desirable for advertisers.

Twitter declined to specify how many of its tweets are in English or how much money it makes from English speakers. But the demographic is important to Twitter's business, some analysts say.

The platform earned more ad revenue from the United States alone than all other markets combined in its fourth quarter, according to its investor letter, and most ads in the United States are likely targeting English-speaking users, said Jasmine Enberg, an analyst at Insider Intelligence.

Twitter's study examined the number of heavy tweeters in English who displayed an interest in a topic, based on the accounts they followed, and how that number of users changed over the past two years.

Twitter was motivated to investigate “disturbing” trends among users that may have been masked by overall growth in daily active users and better understand the decline in the company’s most active users, the documents said. The study made no specific conclusions about why heavy users of the platform are declining.

Asked to comment on the internal documents' findings, a Twitter spokesperson said on Monday: "We regularly conduct research on a wide variety of trends, which evolve based on what’s happening in the world. Our overall audience has continued to grow, reaching 238 million mDAU in Q2 2022," the spokesperson said, using an acronym for monetizable daily active users.

'NOT SAFE FOR WORK' CONTENT

The number of heavy users interested in NSFW and cryptocurrency content grew, the research found.

Twitter is one of the few major social media platforms that permits nudity on its service, and the company has estimated that adult content constitutes 13% of Twitter, according to a separate internal slide presentation seen by Reuters. The presentation did not elaborate on how the figure was calculated.

Advertisers generally steer clear of controversy or nudity for fear of damaging their brands. Major advertisers including Dyson, PBS Kids and Forbes suspended advertising due to accounts that were soliciting child pornography on Twitter, Reuters reported in September.

In response to the September story, Twitter said it "has zero tolerance for child sexual exploitation" and was investing more resources into its work against such material.

Twitter’s most active English-speaking users were also increasingly interested in cryptocurrencies, reaching an all-time high in late 2021, the internal documents showed. But interest in the topic has declined since the crypto price crash in June, and the study noted cryptocurrencies may not be an area of growth in the future.

Current and former Twitter employees who spoke with Reuters said they feared Musk’s calls for less content moderation and his reported plans to gut the staff, which they said will exacerbate the deterioration of the quality of content.

‘DEVASTATING’ LOSSES

Topics that have traditionally made Twitter a popular platform for its millions of users are now in decline among the most active English-speaking users, the documents show.

Interest in world news, as well as liberal politics, showed spikes during major events such as the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. But the categories have since lost the highest number of heavy Twitter users and have shown no signs of recovery, the report said.

Twitter is also losing a “devastating” percentage of heavy users who are interested in fashion or celebrities such as the Kardashian family. These users are likely decamping to rival platforms like Meta Platform's (META.O) Instagram and ByteDance's TikTok, a Twitter researcher wrote.

The study also expressed surprise about the decline in interest for e-sports and online streaming personalities, which were previously growing quickly across Twitter. “The big communities are now in decline,” the report said.

“It seems as though there is a significant discrepancy between what I might imagine are our company values and our growth patterns,” one Twitter researcher wrote.

Reporting by Sheila Dang in Dallas Editing by Kenneth Li and Matthew Lewis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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For Disabled Workers, a Tight Labor Market Opens New Doors - The New York Times

With Covid prompting more employers to consider remote arrangements, employment has soared among adults with disabilities.

The strong late-pandemic labor market is giving a lift to a group often left on the margins of the economy: workers with disabilities.

Employers, desperate for workers, are reconsidering job requirements, overhauling hiring processes and working with nonprofit groups to recruit candidates they might once have overlooked. At the same time, companies’ newfound openness to remote work has led to opportunities for people whose disabilities make in-person work — and the taxing daily commute it requires — difficult or impossible.

As a result, the share of disabled adults who are working has soared in the past two years, far surpassing its prepandemic level and outpacing gains among people without disabilities.

Share employed, change since Jan. 2020

Note: Includes workers between 18 and 64-years-old. Data is not seasonally adjusted.

Source: Current Population Survey, via IPUMS

By The New York Times

In interviews and surveys, people with disabilities report that they are getting not only more job offers, but better ones, with higher pay, more flexibility and more openness to providing accommodations that once would have required a fight, if they were offered at all.

“The new world we live in has opened the door a little bit more,” said Gene Boes, president and chief executive of the Northwest Center, a Seattle organization that helps people with disabilities become more independent. “The doors are opening wider because there’s just more demand for labor.”

Samir Patel, who lives in the Seattle area, has a college degree and certifications in accounting. But he also has autism spectrum disorder, which has made it difficult for him to find steady work. He has spent most of his career in temporary jobs found through staffing agencies. His longest job lasted a little over a year; many lasted only a few months.

This summer, however, Mr. Patel, 42, got a full-time, permanent job as an accountant for a local nonprofit group. The job brought a 30 percent raise, along with retirement benefits, more predictable hours and other perks. Now he is thinking about buying a home, traveling and dating — steps that seemed impossible without the stability of a steady job.

“It’s a boost in confidence,” he said. “There were times when I felt like I was behind.”

Mr. Patel, whose disability affects his speech and can make conversation difficult, worked with an employment coach at the Northwest Center to help him request accommodations both during the interview process and once he started the job. And while Mr. Patel usually prefers to work in the office, his new employer also allows him to work remotely when he needs to — a big help on days when he finds the sensory overload of the office overwhelming.

“If I have my bad days, I just pick up the laptop and work from home,” he said.

Workers with disabilities have long seen their fortunes ebb and flow with the economy. Federal law prohibits most employers from discriminating against people with disabilities, and it requires them to make reasonable accommodations. But research has found that discrimination remains common: One 2017 study found that job applications that disclosed a disability were 26 percent less likely to receive interest from prospective employers. And even when they can find jobs, workers with disabilities frequently encounter barriers to success, from bathroom doors they cannot open without assistance to hostile co-workers.

Workers with disabilities — like other groups that face obstacles to employment, such as those with criminal records — tend to benefit disproportionately from strong job markets, when employers have more of an incentive to seek out untapped pools of talent. But when recessions hit, those opportunities quickly dry up.

“We have a last-in, first-out labor market, and disabled people are often among the last in and the first out,” said Adam Ozimek, chief economist at the Economic Innovation Group, a Washington research organization.

Remote work, however, has the potential to break that cycle, at least for some workers. In a new study, Mr. Ozimek found that employment had risen for workers with disabilities across industries as the labor market improved, consistent with the usual pattern. But it has improved especially rapidly in industries and occupations where remote work is more common. And many economists believe that the shift toward remote work, unlike the red-hot labor market, is likely to prove lasting.

More than 35 percent of disabled Americans ages 18 to 64 had jobs in September. That was up from 31 percent just before the pandemic and is a record in the 15 years the government has kept track. Among adults without disabilities, 78 percent had jobs, but their employment rates have only just returned to the level before the pandemic.

“Disabled adults have seen employment rates recover much faster,” Mr. Ozimek said. “That’s good news, and it’s important to understand whether that’s a temporary thing or a permanent thing. And my conclusion is that not only is it a permanent thing, but it’s going to improve.”

Before the pandemic, Kathryn Wiltz repeatedly asked her employer to let her work from home because of her disability, a chronic autoimmune disorder whose symptoms include pain and severe fatigue. Her requests were denied.

Ms. Wiltz’s new job allows her to work from home permanently.Sarah Rice for The New York Times

When the pandemic hit, however, the hospital in Grand Rapids, Mich., where Ms. Wiltz worked in the medical billing department sent her home along with many of her colleagues. Last month, she started a job with a new employer, an insurance company, in which she will be permanently able to work remotely.

Being able to work from home was a high priority for Ms. Wiltz, 31, because the treatments she receives suppress her immune system, leaving her vulnerable to the coronavirus. And even if that risk subsides, she said, she finds in-person work taxing: Getting ready for work, commuting to the office and interacting with colleagues all drain energy reserves that are thin to begin with. As she struggled through one particularly difficult day recently, she said, she reflected on how hard it would have been to need to go into the office.

“It would have been almost impossible,” she said. “I would have pushed myself and I would have pushed my body, and there’s a very real possibility that I would have ended up in the hospital.”

There are also subtler benefits. Ms. Wirtz can get the monthly drug infusions she receives to treat her disorder during her lunch break, rather than taking time off work. She can turn down the lights to stave off migraines. She doesn’t have to worry that her colleagues are staring at her and wondering what is wrong. All of that, she said, makes her a more productive employee.

“It makes me a lot more comfortable and able to think more clearly and do a better job anyway,” she said.

The sudden embrace of remote work during the pandemic was met with some exasperation from some disability-rights leaders, who had spent years trying, mostly without success, to persuade employers to offer more flexibility to their employees.

“Remote work and remote-work options are something that our community has been advocating for for decades, and it’s a little frustrating that for decades corporate America was saying it’s too complicated, we’ll lose productivity, and now suddenly it’s like, sure, let’s do it,” said Charles-Edouard Catherine, director of corporate and government relations for the National Organization on Disability.

Still, he said the shift is a welcome one. For Mr. Catherine, who is blind, not needing to commute to work means not coming home with cuts on his forehead and bruises on his leg. And for people with more serious mobility limitations, remote work is the only option.

Many employers are now scaling back remote work and are encouraging or requiring employees to return to the office. But experts expect remote and hybrid work to remain much more common and more widely accepted than it was before the pandemic. That may make it easier for disabled employees to continue to work remotely.

The pandemic may also reshape the legal landscape. In the past, employers often resisted offering remote work as an accommodation to disabled workers, and judges rarely required them to do so. But that may change now that so many companies were able to adapt to remote work in 2020, said Arlene S. Kanter, director of the Disability Law and Policy Program at the Syracuse University law school.

“If other people can show that they can perform their work well at home, as they did during Covid, then people with disabilities, as a matter of accommodation, shouldn’t be denied that right,” Ms. Kanter said.

Ms. Kanter and other experts caution that not all people with disabilities want to work remotely. And many jobs cannot be done from home. A disproportionate share of workers with disabilities are employed in retail and other industries where remote work is uncommon. Despite recent gains, people with disabilities are still far less likely to have jobs, and more likely to live in poverty, than people without them.

“When we say it’s historically high, that’s absolutely true, but we don’t want to send the wrong message and give ourselves a pat on the back,” Mr. Catherine said. “Because we’re still twice as likely to be unemployed and we’re still underpaid when we’re lucky enough to be employed.”

Disability issues are likely to become more prominent in coming years because the pandemic has left potentially millions of adults dealing with a disability. A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimated that close to two million working-age Americans had become disabled because of long Covid.

Employers that don’t find ways to accommodate workers with disabilities — whether through remote work or other adjustments — are going to continue to struggle to find employees, said Mason Ameri, a Rutgers University business professor who studies disability.

“Employers have to shape up,” he said. “Employers have to pivot. Otherwise this labor shortage may be more permanent.”

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For Disabled Workers, a Tight Labor Market Opens New Doors - The New York Times
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Fed Is Losing Billions, Wiping Out Profits That Funded Spending - Yahoo Finance

(Bloomberg) -- Profits and losses aren’t usually thought of as a consideration for central banks, but rapidly mounting red ink at the Federal Reserve and many peers risks becoming more than just an accounting oddity.

Most Read from Bloomberg

The bond market is enduring its worst selloff in a generation, triggered by high inflation and the aggressive interest-rate hikes that central banks are implementing. Falling bond prices, in turn, mean paper losses on the massive holdings that the Fed and others accumulated during their rescue efforts in recent years.

Rate hikes also involve central banks paying out more interest on the reserves that commercial banks park with them. That’s tipped the Fed into operating losses, creating a hole that may ultimately require the Treasury Department to fill via debt sales. The UK Treasury is already preparing to make up a loss at the Bank of England.

Britain’s move highlights a dramatic shift in countries including the US, where central banks are no longer significant contributors to government revenues. The US Treasury will see a “stunning swing,” going from receiving about $100 billion last year from the Fed to a potential annual loss rate of $80 billion by year-end, according to Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC.

The accounting losses threaten to fuel criticism of the asset purchase programs undertaken to rescue markets and economies, most recently when Covid-19 shuttered large swathes of the global economy in 2020. Coinciding with the current outbreak in inflation, that could spur calls to rein in monetary policy makers’ independence, or limit what steps they can take in the next crisis.

“The problem with central bank losses are not the losses per se -- they can always be recapitalized -- but the political backlash central banks are likely to increasingly face,” said Jerome Haegeli, chief economist at Swiss Re, who previously worked at Switzerland’s central bank.

The following figures illustrate the scope of operating losses or mark-to-market balance-sheet losses now materializing:

  • Fed remittances owed to the US Treasury reached a negative $5.3 billion as of Oct. 19 -- a sharp contrast with the positive figures seen as recently as the end of August. A negative number amounts to an IOU that would be repaid via any future income.

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia posted an accounting loss of A$36.7 billion ($23 billion) for the 12 months through June, leaving it with a A$12.4 billion negative-equity position.

  • Dutch central bank Governor Klaas Knot, warned last month he expects cumulative losses of about 9 billion euro ($8.8 billion) for the coming years.

  • The Swiss National Bank reported a loss of 95.2 billion francs ($95 billion) for the first six months of the year as the value of its foreign-exchange holdings slumped -- the worst first-half performance since it was established in 1907.

While for a developing country, losses at the central bank can undermine confidence and contribute to a general exodus of capital, that sort of credibility challenge isn’t likely for a rich nation.

As Seth Carpenter, chief global economist for Morgan Stanley and a former US Treasury official put it: “The losses don’t have a material effect on their ability to conduct monetary policy in the near term.”

RBA Deputy Governor Michele Bullock said in response to a question last month about the Australian central bank’s negative-equity position that “we don’t believe that we are impacted at all in our capacity to operate.” After all, “we can create money. That’s what we did when we bought the bonds,” she noted.

But there can still be consequences. Central banks had already become politically charged institutions after, by their own admission, they failed to anticipate and act quickly against budding inflation over the past year or more. Incurring losses adds another magnet for criticism.

ECB Implications

For the European Central Bank, the potential for mounting losses comes after years of purchases of government bonds conducted despite the reservations of conservative officials arguing they blurred the lines between monetary and fiscal policy.

With inflation running at five times the ECB’s target, pressure is mounting to dispose of the bond holdings -- a process called quantitative tightening that the ECB is currently preparing for even as the economic outlook darkens.

“Although there are no clear economic constraints to the central bank running losses, there is the possibility that these become more of a political constraint on the ECB,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists George Cole and Simon Freycenet said. Particularly in northern Europe, it “may fuel the discussion of quantitative tightening.”

President Christine Lagarde hasn’t given any indication that the ECB’s decision on QT will be driven by the prospect of incurring losses. She told lawmakers in Brussels last month that generating profits isn’t part of central banks’ task, insisting that fighting inflation remains policymakers’ “only purpose.”

As for the Fed, Republicans have in the past voiced opposition to its practice of paying interest on surplus bank reserves. Congress granted that authority back in 2008 to help the Fed control interest rates. With the Fed now incurring losses, and the Republicans potentially taking control of at least one chamber of Congress in the November midterm elections, the debate may resurface.

The Fed’s turnaround could be particularly notable. After paying as much as $100 billion to the Treasury in 2021, it could face losses of more than $80 billion on an annual basis if policymakers raise rates by 75 basis points in November and 50 basis points in December -- as markets anticipate -- estimates Stephen Stanley, chief economist for Amherst Pierpont.

Without the income from the Fed, the Treasury then needs to sell more debt to the public to fund government spending.

“This may be too arcane to hit the public’s radar, but a populist could spin the story in a way that would not reflect well on the Fed,” Stanley wrote in a note to clients this month.

--With assistance from Garfield Reynolds.

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The WhatsApp app
Dado Ruvic | Reuters

WhatsApp, the messaging app owned by Facebook parent Meta, suffered a global outage on Tuesday.

Problems were first detected around 3:17 a.m. ET, according to Downdetector.com, which monitors outages across internet services.

Users reported problems with sending and receiving messages. Normal service on WhatsApp had still not been restored at around 4:05 a.m. ET.

WhatsApp Web, the internet browser version of the messaging service, failed to load when tested by CNBC. "Make sure your computer has an active Internet connection," a prompt on WhatsApp Web read.

Meta later confirmed issues with WhatsApp.

"We're aware that some people are currently having trouble sending messages and we're working to restore WhatsApp for everyone as quickly as possible," a Meta spokesperson told CNBC.

WhatsApp, which has around 2 billion users, is particularly popular in countries such as India and Brazil.

It's not the first glitch for a Meta-owned platform this year. In August, Facebook users reported a problem where their Feed was spammed with messages from other people that were initially made on celebrity pages.

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Hong Kong stocks plunge 6% as fears about Xi's third term trump China GDP data - CNN

Hong Kong CNN Business  — 

Hong Kong stocks had their worst day since the 2008 global financial crisis, just a day after Chinese leader Xi Jinping secured his iron grip on power at a major political gathering.

Foreign investors spooked by the outcome of the Communist Party’s leadership reshuffle dumped Chinese equities and the yuan despite the release of stronger-than-expected GDP data. They’re worried that Xi’s tightening grip on power will lead to the continuation of Beijing’s existing policies and further dent the economy.

Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng (HSI) Index plunged 6.4% on Monday, marking its biggest daily drop since November 2008. The index closed at its lowest level since April 2009.

The Chinese yuan weakened sharply, hitting a fresh 14-year low against the US dollar on the onshore market. On the offshore market, where it can trade more freely, the currency tumbled 0.8%, hovering near its weakest level on record, even as the Chinese economy grew 3.9% in the third quarter from a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth of 3.4%.

The sharp sell-off came one day after the ruling Communist Party unveiled its new leadership for the next five years. In addition to securing an unprecedented third term as party chief, Xi packed his new leadership team with staunch loyalists.

A number of senior officials who have backed market reforms and opening up the economy were missing from the new top team, stirring concerns about the future direction of the country and its relations with the United States. Those pushed aside included Premier Li Keqiang, Vice Premier Liu He, and central bank governor Yi Gang.

“It appears that the leadership reshuffle spooked foreign investors to offload their Chinese investment, sparking heavy sell-offs in Hong Kong-listed Chinese equities,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian forex strategist at Mizuho bank.

Officials watch the opening session of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on a TV in Qingdao in east China's Shandong province Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022.

The GDP data marked a pick-up from the 0.4% increase in the second quarter, when China’s economy was battered by widespread Covid lockdowns. Shanghai, the nation’s financial center and a key global trade hub, was shut down for two months in April and May. But the growth rate was still below the annual official target that the government set earlier this year.

GDP data fails to lift mood

“The outlook remains gloomy,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist for Capital Economics, in a research report on Monday.

“There is no prospect of China lifting its zero-Covid policy in the near future, and we don’t expect any meaningful relaxation before 2024,” he added.

Coupled with a further weakening in the global economy and a persistent slump in China’s real estate, all the headwinds will continue to pressure the Chinese economy, he said.

Evans-Pritchard expected China’s official GDP to grow by only 2.5% this year and by 3.5% in 2023.

Monday’s GDP data were initially scheduled for release on October 18 during the Chinese Communist Party’s congress, but were postponed without explanation.

New leadership bodes ill for the outlook?

The possibility that policies such as zero-Covid, which has resulted in sweeping lockdowns to contain the virus, and “Common Prosperity” — Xi’s bid to redistribute wealth — could be escalated was causing concern, Cheung said.

“With the Politburo Standing Committee composed of President Xi’s close allies, market participants read the implications as President Xi’s power consolidation and the policy continuation,” he added.

Mitul Kotecha, head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities, also pointed out that the disappearance of pro-reform officials from the new leadership bodes ill for the future of China’s private sector.

“The departure of perceived pro-stimulus officials and reformers from the Politburo Standing Committee and replacement with allies of Xi, suggests that ‘Common Prosperity’ will be the overriding push of officials,” Kotecha said.

Under the banner of the “Common Prosperity” campaign, Beijing launched a sweeping crackdown on the country’s private enterprise, which shook almost every industry to its core.

“The [market] reaction in our view is consistent with the reduced prospects of significant stimulus or changes to zero-Covid policy. Overall, prospects of a re-acceleration of growth are limited,” Kotecha said.

On the tightly controlled domestic market in China, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2%. The tech-heavy Shenzhen Component Index lost 2.1%.

Huge selloff

The Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks the 30 largest technology firms listed in Hong Kong, plunged 9.7%.

Shares of Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (TCEHY) — the crown jewels of China’s technology sector — both plummeted more than 11%, wiping a combined $54 billion off their stock market value.

The sell-off spilled over into the United States as well. Shares of Alibaba and several other leading Chinese stocks trading in New York, such as EV companies Nio (NIO) and Xpeng, Alibaba rivals JD.com (JD) and Pinduoduo (PDD) and search engine Baidu (BIDU), were all down sharply Monday.

Correction: A previous version of this article gave the incorrect day when Chinese stocks trading in New York were down.

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