Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said Friday that overseas events and the risks they pose drove him to favor a smaller rate rise by the central bank earlier this week than would have been suggested by U.S. economic data alone.
“The data is basically screaming at us to go 50 [basis points] but the geopolitical events were telling you to go forward with caution,” Mr. Waller said in a CNBC interview. “So those two factors combined pushed me off of advocating for a 50-basis point hike at this meeting and supporting the 25 [basis point] point hike.”
Mr. Waller was offering his first public comments in the wake of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting in which the U.S. central bank raised rates for the first time since 2018. Faced with surging inflation pressures, the Fed lifted its overnight target rate range from near-zero levels to between 0.25% and 0.50%, amid guidance that more rate increases will follow as officials seek to quell inflation readings that are the worst in 40 years.
Ahead of the meeting, Mr. Waller had suggested he would favor a half-percentage-point increase, but Russia’s war on Ukraine and the upheaval it is causing changed his view. But he said Friday that aggressive Fed action was still needed amid “raging” levels of inflation.
“I really favor front-loading our rate hikes, that we need to do more withdrawal of accommodation now if we want to have an impact on inflation later this year and next year,” Mr. Waller said. “So in that sense, the way to front-load it is to pull some rate hikes forward, which would imply 50 basis points or at one or multiple meetings in the near future,” he said.
Mr. Waller’s comments arrived on an active day of central-bank commentary, as officials used their first opportunity to speak about the FOMC meeting and what they expect for the economy and monetary policy as the year progresses.
One of the policy makers who weighed in was James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. He was the sole official to break with his colleagues and vote in favor of a half-percentage-point increase at the FOMC meeting.
Mr. Bullard said in a statement that the current setting of monetary policy is “far too low” relative to how the economy is performing and needs to rise quickly to help deal with high levels of inflation.
What’s more, “U.S. monetary policy has been unwittingly easing further because inflation has risen sharply while the policy rate has remained very low, pushing short-term real interest rates lower,” Mr. Bullard said. He added that the FOMC “will have to move quickly to address this situation or risk losing credibility on its inflation target.”
Mr. Bullard has been a vocal supporter of raising rates and has argued for some time that aggressive action was needed. Mr. Waller, before becoming a governor, served as Mr. Bullard’s research director.
After the Fed meeting, central-bank leader Jerome Powell said, “We need to focus on price stability, and particularly because the labor market is so strong and the economy is so strong,” and added, “We feel like the economy can handle tighter monetary policy.”
Mr. Bullard agreed in his statement that the economy was well positioned for higher short-term borrowing costs and said he recommended to his colleagues at the meeting that the Fed try to move its interest-rate target to 3% this year, relative to the 1.9% officials collectively penciled in for 2022. Mr. Bullard said history supports his view the Fed can move aggressively to raise rates, citing a monetary-policy tightening campaign in the early 1990s, which he said had “excellent” results.
Mr. Waller said in his CNBC interview that he wanted to see the federal-funds rate somewhere above 2% by year-end, and that he would favor the Fed starting to shrink its $9 trillion balance sheet soon.
In a posting on his website Friday, Minneapolis Fed leader Neel Kashkari wrote that he supported this week’s rate rise and now expects more increases from the central bank this year. Mr. Kashakari doesn’t have a vote on the FOMC this year. He has historically been one of the Fed officials to favor keeping monetary-policy settings on the easy side.
Mr. Kashkari said that when he last offered forecasts in December, he expected the Fed to move rates up very modestly this year, to between 0.50% and 0.75%. In forecasts this week, he said he had shifted to predict a funds rate of 1.75% to 2% for 2022, which in his view would put monetary policy on a roughly neutral footing, whereas hawkish Fed members like Mr. Bullard want monetary policy to explicitly restrain activity.
Mr. Kashari wrote that if inflation pressures subside, that will allow the Fed to raise rates gradually. But he added that if price pressures don’t cool off, “then the FOMC will need to act more aggressively and bring policy to a contractionary stance in order to move the economy back to an equilibrium consistent with our 2% inflation target.”
Richmond Fed leader Thomas Barkin also spoke Friday. In a speech text, he cautioned that the current path of rate rises is only about taking away stimulus and not adding headwinds to overall activity. He also played down fears that monetary policy is on track to create an economic downturn.
And while it will take time for the Fed to get a handle on all of the economy’s shifting currents, Mr. Barkin said that bigger rate moves could happen if needed. “We have moved at a 50-basis point clip in the past, and we certainly could do so again if we start to believe that is necessary to prevent inflation expectations from unanchoring,” he said.
Write to Michael S. Derby at michael.derby@wsj.com
Fed’s Waller Explains Move to Favor Less Aggressive Rate Hike At FOMC Meeting - The Wall Street Journal
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