Canaccord Genuity's Dwyer says don't "feed the whoosh"
Last week's S&P 500 losses continued an oversold reading on Canaccord Genuity's two most sensitive tactical indicators, analyst Tony Dwyer wrote in a Tuesday note. It also caused two intermediate-term indicators to lose their positive momentum.
"The percentage of stocks above the 10- day moving average dropped into single digits for six consecutive days, and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose to the mid-20s, which is a level we watch closely to indicate an oversold condition," he said, adding "our two longer-term indicators have lost their upward momentum and fallen back into neutral territory in the context of a downtrend."
This has informed Canaccord's game plan for the year, which is to not chase the dips and runups in choppy markets - or whooshes, as they call them.
"The weakness has been extreme enough to cause our most sensitive tactical indicators to suggest a pause in the selling, but our trusty weekly stochastic for the SPX continues to point to a market that lost upside momentum while in a clear intermediate-term downtrend of lower highs and lower lows," he said.
"Despite the possibility of an oversold bounce, we continue to suggest not taking any major market or sector bets until we see a real pivot from the Fed — and that is likely to take more time," Dwyer added.
—Carmen Reinicke
Nasdaq on track for seven days of losses – its longest since 2016
The Nasdaq Composite ticked lower on Tuesday, heading for its seventh consecutive day of declines.
It's a grim milestone for the tech-heavy index, marking its longest losing streak since a 9-day downturn in November 2016. This is also a particularly painful slump for the Nasdaq, which is off by nearly 9% in this latest string of consecutive losses.
Here are a list of notable losing streaks for the Nasdaq, going back to 2000:
September 2022 -8.86%
January 2016 -9.09%
November 2011 -9.11%
October 2008 -21.36%
June 2001 -12.16%
December 2000 -22.63%
The Federal Reserve's move to hike interest rates haven't helped the companies underlying the Nasdaq Composite. Rising interest rates reduce the value of future earnings for tech stocks.
-Darla Mercado, Robert Hum
Dow, S&P 500 turn green
The Dow Jones Industrial average and the S&P 500 reversed earlier losses to trade in positive territory heading into midday Tuesday.
Defensive stocks such as Johnson & Johnson and Coca-Cola lifted the Dow, while the S&P 500 was boosted by Rollins, Illumina and Eli Lilly.
The Nasdaq was still down on the day as tech shares dragged the index lower. Pinduoduo, Okta and Moderna were the biggest losers on the index. Shares of Netflix, Datadog and Palo Alto Networks also slumped.
- Carmen Reinicke
Defensive stocks help Dow
Defensive names gained on Tuesday, helping to lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average off lows of the morning. Health services and health technology sectors led the index.
Johnson & Johnson notched the top performance on the Dow, up more than 2%. UnitedHealth Group gained 1.81% and Merck rose nearly 1%.
Consumer staples also helped lift the market. Coca-Cola gained 1.21% to come in third on the top performers of the Dow list. It was followed by McDonald's, which was up 0.60%.
— Carmen Reinicke
Tech stocks drop
Tech stocks dropped, despite earlier gains, as rising rates threatened to dampen their growth and expose their high valuations.
Information technology was among the biggest laggards in the S&P 500, with the sector down 1.3% in Tuesday morning trading.
Shares of Apple and Microsoft dropped 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively. Tesla fell 1%. Nvidia slipped 1.5%.
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— Sarah Min
U.S. Treasury yields push higher
U.S Treasury yields surged on Tuesday as investors weighed concerns that the Federal Reserve will remain aggressive in its fight to tame surging prices despite its potential repercussions on economic growth.
The yield on the 2-year note last rose 11 basis points to 3.511% and traded at its highest level since November 2007, while the yield on the 10-year note was last up nearly 15 basis points at 3.336%.
The moves came as investors digested a fresh batch of economic news, including August ISM data which came in stronger than anticipated.
— Samantha Subin
ISM services PMI tops expectations for August
The Institute for Supply Management said its services purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 56.9 for August, beating a Dow Jones estimate of 55.5. In other words, the U.S. services sector expanded last month at a faster rate than expected.
The report propelled Treasury yields higher and sent stocks lower, as it raised concern over even higher rates from the Federal Reserve.
To be sure, &P Global's U.S. services PMI showed the biggest contraction for the services sector since May 2020.
— Fred Imbert
Verizon hikes dividend
Telecom giant Verizon raised its quarterly dividend to 65.25 cents per share from 64 cents per share — a 2% increase. The new dividend will be payable Nov. 1. The move comes as Verizon shares struggle this year, losing 20% in 2022. The stock is also off by 7% over the past month and 25% below its 52-week high.
— Fred Imbert
Stocks rise at market open Tuesday
U.S. stocks rose at Tuesday's open as Wall Street looks to snap a three-week losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial average ticked up 117 points or 0.38%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.28% and 0.08%, respectively.
"Bulls hoping for a rebound will be doing so during a shortened Labor Day week that historically has paralleled September and its track record of underperformance: Losses have been slightly less frequent over the past three decades, but volatility has been higher," said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading for E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
— Carmen Reinicke
Stoltzfus on what September trading signals for the year
September is known for being a volatile trading month for markets. Looking back at past Septembers can offer some clues about what the month may have in store, John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist, Managing Director Oppenheimer Asset Management, wrote in a Tuesday note.
"With Q2 earnings season pretty much in the rearview mirror (with 99% of the S&P 500's companies having reported through last Friday) and Q3 earnings season not scheduled to get underway until mid-October when the big banks report, the "what have you done for me lately" market crowd are likely to carry more weight on the day-to-day near term and with their usual propensity for worry and negative projection," he wrote.
Counting back from 1994 to calendar year 2021, Stoltzfus counted 13 Septembers that saw a negative return for the S&P 500 and 15 Septembers when the S&P 500 delivered a positive return.
He also noted that of the past 13 Septembers that delivered negative returns, only 6 of those years saw the S&P 500 negative for the full year.
"In consideration of the aforementioned we think that while it's not unreasonable to consider potential volatility in entering any September it's not necessarily a determinant for how the S&P 500 will perform in that month or for that matter how the benchmark will perform for the calendar year," he said.
- Carmen Reinicke
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman says there are signs inflation is calming
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman has said the Federal Reserve needed to be more aggressive in its rate hiking plan to tame inflation. Now, he says it's on well on that track and there are some indications that inflation is calming.
"Our biggest fear was inflation, and that's why I wanted the Fed to raise rates quickly and soon. They're now doing this, I think they have to [continue]," the Pershing Square Capital CEO told CNBC's "Squawk Box" Tuesday morning. "What they've said they're going to do they have to do, which is raise rates to something in order of 4% or maybe a little bit more, keep the there for… a year or so."
The markets are still down big for the year but Ackman said that for the most part, Pershing owns the same companies it has owned since the start of 2022.
"Ultimately if you own great businesses, you can ride through a challenging time like this," he said.
— Tanaya Macheel
Credit Suisse's Golub on market returns year to date
The S&P 500's roughly -16.1% year-to-date "hides sharp underlying moves," Credit Suisse's Jonathan Golub wrote in a Monday note. Returns have been -22.5% year-to-date through mid-June, up 17.7% to mid-August and -8.1% to month-end.
"Market leadership has been consistent throughout, with Value, Large Cap and Energy outperforming on moves lower, while Growth, Small Cap and TECH+ outperformed during the markets recent rebound," said Golub.
In addition, even though EPS grew 10.2% during the second-quarter earnings season, outperforming estimates of 4.6%, revisions have slumped due to recession concerns and poor guidance. Now, estimates are -5.5% for the third quarter and -3.7% for 2023.
"Energy revisions have been an outlier to the upside, TECH+ to the downside," said Golub. "Historically, in inflationary periods, EPS rolls over at a recession's onset, 15 months in advance when inflation is low."
Still, employment data is not consistent with a recession, he said. And, breakevens and economist forecasts are signaling that inflation could drop to roughly 2.5% at the end of 2023.
- Carmen Reinicke
Bed Bath & Beyond under pressure once again
U.S. Treasury yields rise as investors monitor economic data
U.S. Treasury yields were higher as market participants awaited a fresh batch of economic data and Treasury auctions following Monday's Labor Day recess.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose over 7 basis points to 3.265% at around 3:40 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond gained 6 basis points to 3.408%.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note jumped nearly 7 basis points to trade at 3.466%.
— Sam Meredith
Sterling jumps on reports of new UK PM's energy bill plans
Sterling climbed 0.6% against the dollar in early trade on Tuesday after Bloomberg reported that incoming British Prime Minister Liz Truss has drafted plans to freeze energy bills for U.K. households, in a bid to mitigate the country's spiraling cost of living crisis.
The pound was changing hands for around $1.158 shortly after 8 a.m. in London, having slid below $1.15 on Monday.
The report overnight suggested that Truss plans to fix typical household gas and electricity prices at their current level £1,971 ($2,300) per year. British energy regulator Ofgem recently announced an 80% increase to the country's energy price cap from Oct. 1, which would take the cap to £3,548 per year.
— Elliot Smith
European markets rise as investors assess economic challenges
European markets climbed on Tuesday, recovering the previous session's losses as investors continued to assess recession risks in the region.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 added 0.8% in early trade, with retail stocks jumping 3.7% to lead gains as most sectors nudged into positive territory. Oil and gas stocks were the outliers, slipping 0.7%.
- Elliot Smith
Australia's central bank hikes rates by half a point
The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates by 50 basis points, in line with analyst forecasts in a Reuters poll.
That's the fifth increase in a row since the central bank started raising rates in May.
Inflation in Australia stood at 6.1% in the June quarter, above the target range of between 2% and 3%.
— Abigail Ng
Russian energy minister says price cap will lead to shipping more Russian oil to Asia
A worker walks from the Sans Vitesse accommodation towards the gas receiving compressor station of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline in Lubmin, Germany, on Tuesday, Aug 30, 2022.
Krisztian Bocsi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Russian energy minister Nikolai Shulginov said the country will ship more oil to Asia in response to price caps on its oil exports, Reuters reported.
"Any actions to impose a price cap will lead to deficit on (initiating countries') own markets and will increase price volatility," he told reporters at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, according to Reuters.
Last week, the G-7 economic powers agreed to cap the price of Russian crude to punish Moscow for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion, Russia exported approximately half of its crude and petroleum product exports to Europe, according to the International Energy Agency.
— Natalie Tham
CNBC Pro: Forget the volatility. Buy this ETF for a long term growth story, analyst says
Investors should navigate the ongoing market volatility by getting into ETFs with a long-term growth story, according to one portfolio manager.
"The idea of owning ETF instead of one specific player — you have the whole basket and ride the wave of more capital investment into the cyberspace," John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, told CNBC.
He names his favorite cyber security ETF, along with two others.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Weizhen Tan
CNBC Pro: Hold cash as it's beating the market, say the pros
Strategists are urging investors to allocate more of their portfolios to cash during these volatile times, as interest rate hikes mean it's now offering higher yields.
"Cash was king" last month, Bank of America said in a Sept. 1 note, as most asset classes — such as stocks, bonds and even commodities — posted losses.
Here's how to add it to your portfolios, according to the pros.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Weizhen Tan
Where the major averages stand to start the week
Last week's sell-off saw the major averages post their third straight week of losses. All 11 S&P 500 sectors ending the week negative, led to the downside by materials, which fell nearly 5%.
Here's how the major averages fared:
- The Dow Industrial Average fell 1.1% on Friday. The 30-stock index closed roughly 3% lower for the week and finished more than 15% off its 52-week high.
- The S&P 500 fell 1.1% on Friday and 3.29% for the week. The benchmark index hit its lowest close since July and closed more than 18% off its 52-week highs.
- The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% on Friday and finished its sixth negative session in a row for the first time since 2019. The tech-heavy index fell 4.21% for the week and closed more than 28% off its 52-week high.
— Samantha Subin, Christopher Hayes
Truist's Lerner on searching for signs of 'stabilization' in an oversold market
How markets react to the news over the weekend could play an integral role in where the markets move going forward, said Truist's Keith Lerner
"The best side for the bulls would be that the market is actually able to stabilize with all the bad news," he said. "That will at least tell you that the market has taken enough short-term pain. I'm just looking to see — in an oversold market — can we find any kind of stabilization coming back online after a long weekend."
According to Lerner, technical indicators show the most extreme oversold conditions since June's trough, but the market moving higher or slightly only lower on the back of the weekend could be a good sign.
Over the long weekend, Europe grappled with energy supply concerns amid news that Russia would halt gas flows to Europe, while OPEC+ announced a production cut. Lerner is also closely watching the ECB and its impending decision on rate hikes.
"What you want to see is can the market find some stability tomorrow as opposed to a big broad sell-off," Lerner said.
— Samantha Subin
CVS to purchase Signify Health for roughly $8 billion
CVS Health said Monday it's reached a deal to buy in-home health company Signify Health for $30.50 a share, or roughly $8 billion.
The acquisition, which both companies expect to close in the first half of 2023, will enable CVS to continue expanding its growing health-care services offerings and comes amid a push by competitors Amazon and Walgreens to expand in the space.
"This acquisition will enhance our connection to consumers in the home and enables providers to better address patient needs as we execute our vision to redefine the health care experience," CVS Health President and CEO Karen Lynch said in a news release.
— Samantha Subin, Leslie Josephs
Stock futures open higher
Stock futures rose on Monday as Wall Street kicked off a holiday-shortened week of trading. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 121 points, or 0.39%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.26%. Nasdaq 100 futures were last up 0.12%.
— Samantha Subin
Dow rises slightly in volatile post-Labor Day trading as investors assess strong data, surging rates - CNBC
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