Gita Gopinath:
I mean, firstly, we all recognize, even the IMF recognizes that the world economy has shown a lot of resilience against some very hard shocks, I mean, the pandemic, the war, with energy prices soaring.
So, despite all of that the labor market is tight, consumption spending is high. So there are bright spots, right? I mean, this is clearly the case. But, at the same time, we have to recognize that policymakers are trying to bring inflation down, which means they're raising interest rates, which is what you need to do to bring inflation down. The economy should slow.
And you saw in March the banking stress that triggered more financial tightening. So, therefore, I think the baseline is that we continue to have some growth, even if it's not the highest growth numbers. But the risks are weighted to the downside. We could see much more financial stress than we have seen. The war is not over. Energy prices could go back up.
So we just want to be cautious about just declaring victory and saying that we're all in a good spot.
Americans get some relief from rising food and gas prices - PBS NewsHour
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